Fight Night

Bellator, WSOF and UFC have events this coming weekend.

UFC Fight Night - McGregor vs. Siver  (2015-01-18)
#10	FW	75	Conor McGregor	±150	#18	FW	71	Dennis Siver
#2	LW	89	Donald Cerrone	±170	#5	LW	83	Benson Henderson
#25	MW	72	Uriah Hall	±530	#157	MW	55	Ron Stallings
#25	LW	73	Norman Parke	±110	#32	LW	72	Gleison Tibau
#61	WW	67	Cathal Pendred	±140	#88	WW	64	Sean Spencer
#72	WW	66	John Howard	±130	#69	MW	63	Lorenz Larkin
#656	WW	47	Lipeng Zhang	±330	#154	LW	59	Chris Wade
#140	BW	53	Patrick Holohan	±190	#138	FLW	47	Shane Howell
#130	LW	60	Johnny Case	±120	#166	LW	58	Frankie Perez
#282	FW	51	Charles Rosa	±130	#202	FW	54	Sean Soriano
#103	LHW	55	Sean O'Connell	±120	#84	LHW	57	Matt Van Buren
#81	FLW	52	Joby Sanchez	±160	#323	BW	47	Tateki Matsuda

Vegas loves McGregor, they give Siver only a 10% chance of winning but CCR says it's closer to 40%. CCR actually disagrees with Vegas about a lot of fights on this card. It likes Cerrone over Henderson and favors Parke (slightly), Pendred, Howard, Soriano and Van Buren, all the opposite of Vegas. We'll see what happens!

UFC Fight Night - McGregor vs. Siver  (2015-01-18)
#7	FW↑3	78↑3	Conor McGregor	TKO	#20	FW↓2	69↓3	Dennis Siver
#1	LW↑1	90↑2	Donald Cerrone	Unan.	#7	LW↓2	81↓2	Benson Henderson
#24	MW↑1	73↑1	Uriah Hall	TKO	#176	MW↓19	54↓1	Ron Stallings
#25	LW↑7	73↑1	Gleison Tibau	Split	#34	LW↓9	71↓1	Norman Parke
#44	WW↑17	69↑2	Cathal Pendred	Unan.	#124	WW↓36	62↓2	Sean Spencer
#66	WW	67↑3	Lorenz Larkin	TKO	#104	WW↓32	63↓3	John Howard
#142	LW↑12	60↑1	Chris Wade	Unan.	#775	LW	46↓1	Lipeng Zhang
#47	FLW	55↑2	Patrick Holohan	Unan.	NR	FLW	44↓3	Shane Howell
#104	LW↑26	63↑3	Johnny Case	TKO	#224	LW↓58	56↓2	Frankie Perez
#201	FW↑81	54↑3	Charles Rosa	Sub.	#343	FW↓141	50↓4	Sean Soriano
#68	LHW↑35	59↑4	Sean O'Connell	TKO	#123	LHW↓39	54↓3	Matt Van Buren
#79	FLW↑2	52	Joby Sanchez	Split	#143	FLW	47	Tateki Matsuda

CCR ended up getting most of those wrong (Parke, Howard, Soriano, Van Buren), but they were all predicted to be very close, ±130 or less. It should've gotten Cerrone and Pendred wrong too. The Pendred decision especially, you can't get wronger than that. CCR doesn't know about bad decisions though, so both fighters end up being a bit overrated.

---

WSOF 17 - Shields vs. Foster  (2015-01-17)
#8	WW	83	Jake Shields	±580	#77	WW	65	Brian Foster
NR	LW	64	Brian Cobb	±270	#292	LW	54	Jonathan Nunez
#123	MW	57	Krasimir Mladenov	±110	#129	MW	57	Brendan Kornberger
NR	BW	43	Bryson Hansen	±100	NR	LW	43	Rudy Morales
#362	MW	47	Adam Cella	±170	#370	WW	52	Danny Davis Jr.
#568	WW	48	Gil Guardado	±200	#262	LW	55	Sinjen Smith
#490	LW	50	Jimmy Spicuzza	±200	NR	WW	43	Joe Condon
NR	FW	43	Soslan Abanokov	±260	#361	WW	52	Jordan Rinaldi
NR	FLW	43	Taylor McCorriston	±200	#231	BW	50	Donavon Frelow
NR	MW	40	Jamie Point	±140	NR	MW	37	Trey Williams

There's quite a drop-off in talent after the main event (or within the main event). The big difference here compared to Vegas is CCR likes Cobb over Nunez.

WSOF 17 - Shields vs. Foster  (2015-01-17)
#8	WW	84↑1	Jake Shields	Sub.	#83	WW↓6	64↓1	Brian Foster
#635	LW	48↑5	Joe Condon	Sub.	#619	LW↓327	48↓6	Jonathan Nunez
#88	MW↑35	61↑3	Krasimir Mladenov	Unan.	#202	MW↓73	53↓3	Brendan Kornberger
#343	BW	47↑3	Bryson Hansen	Unan.	NR	BW	40↓3	Rudy Morales
#282	WW↑88	54↑2	Danny Davis Jr.	Unan.	NR	WW	45↓2	Adam Cella
#219	FW	53↑1	Jordan Rinaldi	Sub.	NR	FW	41↓1	Soslan Abanokov
#82	FLW	52↑2	Donavon Frelow	Unan.	NR	FLW	40↓2	Taylor McCorriston
NR	MW	43↑6	Trey Williams	Sub.	NR	MW	37↓3	Jamie Point

---

Bellator MMA - Bellator 132  (2015-01-16)
#4	FW	85	Patricio Freire	±240	#7	FW	76	Daniel Straus
#31	FW	66	Georgi Karakhanyan	±210	#104	FW	59	Bubba Jenkins
#132	LHW	54	Houston Alexander	±130	#171	LHW	51	Virgil Zwicker
#81	WW	65	Marius Zaromskis	±190	#181	WW	58	Fernando Gonzalez
#285	MW	49	Luc Bondole	±150	NR	WW	45	Chris Herrera
NR	BW	37	Fabian Gonzalez	±120	NR	N/A	35	Albert Morales
#133	LW	60	Derek Anderson	±270	#466	WW	50	Danny Navarro
#593	LW	48	Steve Kozola	±180	NR	WW	54	Jonathan Rivera
NR	MW	44	Hector Carrillo	±110	NR	LHW	44	Everett Cummings
#96	MW	60	Dustin Jacoby	±130	#80	MW	62	John Salter

Karakhanyan over Jenkins is the big difference here.

Bellator MMA - Bellator 132  (2015-01-16)
#3	FW↑1	87↑2	Patricio Freire	Sub.	#10	FW↓3	75↓2	Daniel Straus
#23	FW↑8	68↑2	Georgi Karakhanyan	Sub.	#136	FW↓32	57↓2	Bubba Jenkins
#148	LHW↑23	52↑1	Virgil Zwicker	Split	#145	LHW↓13	52↓1	Houston Alexander
#117	WW↑64	62↑4	Fernando Gonzalez	Unan.	#158	WW↓77	60↓5	Marius Zaromskis
#295	LHW	46↑2	Everett Cummings	Sub.	NR	HW	36↓3	Jason Glaza
#49	MW↑31	66↑4	John Salter	Sub.	#120	MW↓24	57↓3	Dustin Jacoby
#277	LW↑316	55↑6	Steve Kozola	KO	#444	LW	50↓4	Jonathan Rivera
#115	LW↑18	62↑2	Derek Anderson	TKO	#558	LW	49↓1	Danny Navarro
NR	BW	41↑6	Albert Morales	Sub.	NR	BW	34↓2	Fabian Gonzalez
#261	MW	50↑5	Chris Herrera	KO	#412	MW↓127	46↓4	Luc Bondole

Here's the event recap, with winners on the left. These are preliminary ranks & ratings, the official ones come on Monday. The ratings probably won't change much but the ranks could depending on what happens in other events.

Fun prelims, as usual. CCR got Karakhanyan right (wtf Herb Dean?). It was a great main event apart from the fouls. Pitbull is now the top fighter outside the UFC (#23 P4P).