Jones and Cormier currently total 102 + 93 = 194 points, which puts them first all-time. And if that weren't enough, Weidman-Belfort at the end of February has the potential to be even bigger. It's a great time to be an MMA fan.
My goal here was to develop a simple and predictive system that gives reasonable and interesting results, and I think I've done that. The best "system" is probably Vegas, which predicts the winners 68% of the time according to BestFightOdds. On the same set of fights, CCR picks the correct winners in 64% of UFC fights and 65% of non-UFC fights (over 2000 fights in each group). And it's well calibrated: fighters that it claims have a 30% chance of winning end up winning about 30% of the time. For all fights listed on Sherdog since 2001 where both fighters have at least three previous fights, it correctly predicts the winners 70% of the time.
There's other objective systems out there, including Fight Matrix and ScoreCardMMA. I think both of those are really cool, but they're also complicated and arbitrary (and neither aim to be predictive). I'll explain how my system works in the next post and end here with tonight's card:
The moneylines mostly agree with the bookmakers. The big exception is Dunham-Damm, where Dunham is about -500 but CCR has it even.
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